Fun Fact: I once tried to guess the number of gumballs in one of those giant jars at a county fair. My guess was 5,000, which felt like an impossibly huge number…… I was off by about 4,800, and I didn't win the jar.

Turns out, my wild guess was symbolic of a bigger game being played in the private markets. Elon Musk is looking to raise funds for SpaceX with a number that makes that gumball jar look microscopic: a valuation of $400 billion.

Today, we’ll break down how a company that launches rockets is now being valued like a global tech giant, and why its real secret weapon might not be what you think.

 Deals

BlackRock Acquires ElmTree Funds as It Continues Private-Markets Push

Industry News

US copper prices rise to record high as Donald Trump threatens 50% tariff

Elon Musk tells analyst to 'shut up' after analyst calls for company oversight of the CEO

World

China’s producer prices fall 3.6% in June, biggest drop in nearly two years as deflation deepens

Well now, it seems Elon Musk is at it again, shaking the very foundations of private market valuations. I have to say, the numbers being tossed around for SpaceX are truly something to behold. We're hearing whispers (strong ones, mind you) of a new funding round that would peg the company's value at a staggering $400 billion .

Let that sink in for a moment .

I can still recall the early days, the skepticism that dripped from every corner of the market. "A private company launching rockets? Preposterous!" they used to say. Well, who's laughing now?

What really fascinates me here is the engine behind this incredible valuation. It's not just about launching rockets anymore, is it? No, the real story, the one many people have been tracking closely, is Starlink.

Sources who have their ears firmly to the ground, tare saying that the satellite internet division is now pulling in more than half of the company's revenue. That's a monumental shift and a testament to a business model that is firing on all cylinders. It transforms SpaceX from a launch provider into a global communications behemoth.

Of course, it’s not all smooth sailing. The Starship program has had its share of... explosive setbacks. That's the nature of pushing the envelope, I suppose. You're bound to have some fireworks, and the June incident in Texas was quite the spectacle. But even these fiery trials seem to only fuel the company’s mystique and, paradoxically, its perceived value.

And then there's the ever-present drama of Musk himself. His public spats, this time with President Trump over fiscal policy, are a constant sideshow. It’s a high-wire act that would make any other CEO’s board run for the hills. Yet, for Musk, it seems to be just another Tuesday.

This complex interplay of groundbreaking technology and one-of-a-kind leadership (if you want to call it that) creates a narrative that is simply irresistible to investors.

They aren’t just buying shares in a company; they're buying a piece of a story that feels like it's being written in real-time. This proposed dual-structure fundraising, a primary round to set the price followed by a secondary for insiders, is a shrewd move, a well-trodden path for a company this mature in the private sphere. It’s how you reward the faithful while still fueling the beast. It’s a classic, and I expect it will be met with a voracious appetite.

What a time to be watching the skies.

See you next week,

— Matt

P.S. If you enjoy my emails, move them to your primary inbox and let me know by sending a reply or clicking the poll below. I read every response.